On the evening of January 24th, 2022, the first batch of high matte products from Morowali Park in Aoyama, Indonesia was completed and officially shipped back to China, alleviating the existing problems of tight domestic supply. Although in terms of magnitude, the improvement of supply by the first batch of high matte products is not very great, the market is expected to increase the production of Qingshan production line, and the supply expectation has improved, which has frustrated the market soft position behavior.
In addition, the fundamentals of Shanghai nickel are weak, gradually changing from a shortage of supply and demand last year to a surplus. The previous strong rise in Shanghai nickel was mainly due to news disturbances and low inventory levels, rampant speculative sentiment and forcing positions to speculate on the price of basic metals.
On January 20, the main force of Shanghai Nickel increased its positions by 14153 hands, and speculation and forced positions were rampant. Today, only 293 positions were reduced, and a large number of bulls changed hands to show confidence in the continued decline in nickel prices. Weak fundamentals superimposed before the Spring Festival downstream stainless steel shutdown holiday, lack of consumer support, but from the inventory point of view, the marginal change is small, still at a historical low, it is worth noting. In the medium to long term, nickel prices may remain weak.
Operation suggestion: wait and see carefully, you can consider shorting on the right side.
Risk factors: news disturbance during the Spring Festival; macro stagflation background continues to ferment.
Disclaimer: this report is produced by the Institute, and no person or unit may modify, publish or reproduce this report in any form without the written authorization of the joint stock limited company. This report is based on credible public information and field research data used by our futures researchers, but the company does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information used. Moreover, the information, recommendations and forecasts in this report reflect the judgment made at the time of the initial release of the report and may be adjusted at any time. The information or opinions expressed in the report do not constitute final operational recommendations for investment, law, accounting or taxation. We do not guarantee the final operation recommendations in respect of the contents of the report. Within the knowledge of the joint stock limited company and its researchers, the joint stock limited company and its futures researchers and property stakeholders do not have any interest in the evaluated or recommended products, and at the same time remind futures investors that the futures market is risky and should be cautious in entering the market.
Click to subscribe to SMM China Nickel Industry chain Annual report to master comprehensive and in-depth industry chain data, research information and SMM professional analysis
